Worldview '99
Worldview '99
UP FRONT
David Edwards
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DECADE MAKES! Travel back 10 years and look at Cycle World's August issue, pamphlet-thin at a paltry 82 pages. Why so slim? At the time, the motorcycle industry was between the proverbial rock and a hard place, what with a glut of unsold leftovers from the Big Four's market-share wars of the early '80s, followed by the dollar nosediving versus the Japanese yen. Bike-makers weren't advertising, customers weren't buying, magazines weren't very big.
Fast-forward to August, 1998, and the situation has righted itself. Maga zines are fatter, new-bike sales are up-as they have been for most of the `90s-and the dollar is strong once more, albeit at the expense of a tank ing Asian economy. End result for buyers is that the Japanese have held the price line on most models, or done better. Kawasaki's ZX-6R, for exam ple, completely madeover for `98 and arguably the best middleweight ever, retails at $300 less than its predeces sor. Anti-sticker shock!
Another indication of the market's health is the number of new/refi nanced companies that want in on the action. Over in Italy, Ducati was cir cling the drainhole when an American investment house moved in two years ago. Now the company is back on solid footing, vendors have been paid, spare parts are once more available and new models are in the pipeline. Moto Guzzi, moribund for years, like wise has used an infusion of capital to upgrade its model line, with really radical departures set to come (see Roundup, this issue). Aprilia, known to Americans only as a force in 250cc GP racing, will soon have its tasty RSV1000 sport-Twin for sale in the U.S. And let's not forget Cagiva's re launching of MV Agusta with the sex ier-than-stilettos F4 750.
Even the French, fergawdsakes, want to play, with a line of Voxan V Twins in standard, sportbike and `60sretro scrambler trim. The latter is tres cool, and may have a built-in audience ready to buy. Remember Honda's CL644 concept bike, the Tokyo Show homage to the 305 Scrambler that we ran on the February `96 cover? Well, we still get impassioned letters about that bike. Honda does, too. On the home front, for the first time since the 1930s, America will have three bonafide motorcycle companies. Polaris turned us loose on a pre-pro duction Victory V92C and we came away impressed enough to name it 1998's Best Cruiser. It's in showrooms now. Excelsior-Henderson's Super-X isn't, but should be by early 1999.
And then there's Harley-Davidson. Note that from the early `80s, when it came within a few hours of going belly-up, Harley has mounted a come back that is the envy of the industrythis with a creaky old non-unit, two valve, pushrod V-Twin not too far re moved from its 1936 design roots! Ironic, isn't it, that H-D's juggernaut success has spawned a whole after market subgroup dedicated to making virtual clones of the Evolution motor, and that with each passing model year Japanese cruisers look more and more made-in-Milwaukee. --
The irony is not lost on HarleyDavidson CEO Jeff Bleustein. "I sup pose you could sit back and feel flattered, but it's really more disap pointing and sad to see that instead of using their creative talents to do something new and different, good engineers and designers are spending their energies on copying," he says. Now comes the all-new Twin Cam 88. Think of it as an armor-plated Evo motor. But rather than concentrate on the new powerplant's hard parts, Bleustein is more excited about the soft science of growing the marketplace. "Today, we're still well below the levels of motorcycles that were being ridden 15 or 20 years ago," he says. "We've gotten people into this sport once be fore; I think we need to dedicate our selves to getting them back. That's where a lot of our emphasis is going to go-not so much focusing on struggling with our competitors over a bigger piece of the pie, but rather to expand the whole motorcycle industry."
Does Bleustein seeareturn to the heady days of the late `70s, when more than a million bikes a year flew out of showrooms? "I don't spend a lot of time speculating on an upper limit because I think there's such a long way we can go," he says. "In the U.S., we're only selling to between one and two percent of the population."
On the dirtbike side of the aisle, Yamaha really stirred things up this year with its new YZ400F. The revhappy rascals are all over the place, selling like knobby-shod hotcakes. And if you don't think that puts a burr under Honda's saddle, well, think again. Look for the former four-stroke king to retaliate with a redone XR600, probably with a CR-type alloy frame and liquid-cooling. And how's this for industrial espionage? Apparently KTM was none too pleased about the YZ's resounding success, either, and pro ceeded to hire away some of the free lance design help responsible for the five-valve 400's zinginess. There'll be a new line of Katoom quadra-strokes soon. Oh, yeah, an all-new, fuel-inject ed DRX400 from Suzuki, too, as pre dicted in the June issue. Factor in a four-stroke MXer from bicycle-builder Cannondale, plus ever-tightening off road emissions regulations, and the fu ture looks very Thumper.
While we're looking ahead, how `bout a big ol' sloppy kiss for what's behind? This year was a big one for birth days-Harley's 95th, Big Red's 50th, BMW'S 75th, Ducati's 50th, Buell's 15th, Bimota's 25th and Norton's 100th (never mind that the British company isn't actu ally around to celebrate its centenary, the comeback is in progress-read all about it elsewhere in this issue-though the British being British, I wouldn't hold my breath in the meantime). Anyway, 1999 is almost here with plenty of good things about to happen. Can't wait to see what's in store for the year 2000. This is gonna be fun.
