Will 1992 Be the Make-Or-Break Year?

WILL 1992 BE THE MAKE-OR-BREAK YEAR?

JUST A FEW MORE LEAVES

on the calender. That's

about all it's going to

take before industry analysts have the information they’ll need to predict whether 1992 begins a reaffirmation of motorcycling, or continues the industry’s long, slow slide.

That, at least, is the view of longtime industry watcher Don Brown, who runs Don J. Brown Associates in Irvine, California.

This year could prove critical for two reasons, according to Brown. First, new-bike sales ended their free fall, and stabilized, for each of the past two years, at about 266,000 units per year. Second, the average age of existing streetbikes is very high-about 9.5 years.

Because this aging process leads to reduced availability of used bikes, says Brown, “I think it’s reasonable to expect a 30-percent decline in the used-bike market over the next five years. With the prices of used bikes up and their availability down, will the customer turn to a new bike? Maybe.”

The fly in the financial ointment could prove to be economic conditions.

“With prices of used bikes up, and their availability down, will the customer turn to a new bike? Maybe.”

Brown warns that if the current recession and high unemployment continue, new-bike sales will suffer. Instead of executing its long-awaited turnaround, the industry could remain in the doldrums, or even continue its slide.

That’s why 1992 could be a pivotal year for the motorcycle industry. And though 1991 represented the first annual increase in wholesale motorcycle shipments to dealers since 1984 (up 6 percent from 1990 figures), for now, at least, there’s no way to tell which way the business might pivot.

Jon F. Thompson